Inspired by:
https://twitter.com/hamandcheese/status/1707097197714489550
Will we build an audio system before 2040 that facilitates a nontrivial two-way exchange of information between humans and a dolphin or sperm whale (or any Cetacean). This market aims to have a high bar for what would qualify as a meaningful exchange.
Some examples that would resolve YES:
We build a system that can communicate the steps of a complicated trick or maneuver using an audio system alone to a dolphin. The dolphin attempts the trick, and we provide audio feedback about what it might have done wrong. In less than 3 rounds of feedback, the dolphin does the trick correctly
We negotiate a trade between ourselves and a dolphin, asking what we must offer in order for it to complete an unfamiliar and nontrivial task. The dolphin responds vocally with a request that we can confidently interpret, then performs the task after the request is met.
On an I-know-it-when-I-see-it basis, a conversation more conceptually broad and substantive than one can have with a typical two-year-old human
1,000
3.00@NicoDelon Correct, the dolphin doesn’t have to speak in that example, though it would be a slam dunk YES if the dolphin asked clarifying questions we could answer.
Part of the reason why this would be a very impressive feat is because it currently takes us weeks to months to teach dolphins complex tricks; if a dolphin could learn something in a few tries with audio feedback, it would demonstrate a highly impressive transfer of information.
I don’t have a clear picture of how complicated the maneuver would have to be to count. It doesn’t need to be as hard or foreign as the most complex show tricks, but it shouldn’t be trivial. An example that comes to mind that seems impressive enough to resolve is to ask the dolphin to swim between several landmarks in a particular order, but I’m open to suggestions about what counts as “impressive enough.”