Inspired by:
When that market is resolved, I will attempt to ask the creator whether >=50% of the respondents were white males (or investigate the results myself if they're published). I will resolve this market based on that metric, and N/A if for whatever reason I can't get a good answer.
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66.46% according to https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-1-rationalists
If 67% of the people who take Plasma's survey are men, then 75% would need to be white for this to resolve YES. I'm actually not sure Manifold is that white, especially since I was wrong about how male it was.
I'd bet a lot on white men being a plurality of the site, though. Maybe 45%, plus or minus 5%.
@Stralor but I'm sad no one bought into my high limit orders when they were confident :(
@evergreenemily Note that Pat's survey included options like 'non-binary' and 'other', even though it was asking whether someone was 'female' or 'male', not whether someone was a 'woman' or 'man'. The inclusion of 'non-binary' and 'other' increases the chances of someone answering with their self-identified gender, as opposed to their sex. If the trans or pseudo-trans people make up a significant percentage of the community, which wouldn't be surprising, this could be relevant.
Plasma's question is explicitly about whether the respondents are 'male', which unambiguously refers to their sex. So the resolution is quite dependent on how Plasma chooses to construct the poll. Say he only includes 'female' and 'male' and even specifies in the poll description that the question is about "your sex assigned at birth". That could result in a significantly different distribution.
@JosephNoonan Might wanna specify how you intend to construct the survey.
@JamesColiar he did. from his market's description:
My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race.
@Stralor I read it as him going to simply ask the same question, but I guess providing a specific example indicates he's going to use the same subset of answers as well.