Is Manifold mostly a bunch of white guys?

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resolved Oct 9

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Is Manifold just a bunch of white guys?

34% chance. My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race. Will at least 80 percent of respondents who answer both questions say that they are white males? Note that the race question will use checkboxes (select all that apply), so some people may select white and another race - they will still be counted towards this maket. Note: This requires 80% to say that they are white AND male, not just 80% white and 80% male. The close date of this question may change depending on when I decide to run the survey. See Plasma's Manifold Survey for other questions about the survey.

When that market is resolved, I will attempt to ask the creator whether >=50% of the respondents were white males (or investigate the results myself if they're published). I will resolve this market based on that metric, and N/A if for whatever reason I can't get a good answer.

#Plasma's Manifold survey

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66.46% according to https://plasmabloggin.substack.com/p/survey-results-pt-1-rationalists

Survey Results Pt. 1: Rationalists, furries, white guys, and more

A couple months ago, I started writing a survey of Manifold users, inspired by a similar one run by Pat Scott. After being open for a full month, from Sept. 7 to Oct. 7, the survey has finally concluded, with a total of 168 respondents. I already wrote

If 67% of the people who take Plasma's survey are men, then 75% would need to be white for this to resolve YES. I'm actually not sure Manifold is that white, especially since I was wrong about how male it was.

I'd bet a lot on white men being a plurality of the site, though. Maybe 45%, plus or minus 5%.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily agreed

@Stralor but I'm sad no one bought into my high limit orders when they were confident :(

@evergreenemily Note that Pat's survey included options like 'non-binary' and 'other', even though it was asking whether someone was 'female' or 'male', not whether someone was a 'woman' or 'man'. The inclusion of 'non-binary' and 'other' increases the chances of someone answering with their self-identified gender, as opposed to their sex. If the trans or pseudo-trans people make up a significant percentage of the community, which wouldn't be surprising, this could be relevant.

Plasma's question is explicitly about whether the respondents are 'male', which unambiguously refers to their sex. So the resolution is quite dependent on how Plasma chooses to construct the poll. Say he only includes 'female' and 'male' and even specifies in the poll description that the question is about "your sex assigned at birth". That could result in a significantly different distribution.

@JosephNoonan Might wanna specify how you intend to construct the survey.

predicted NO

@JamesColiar he did. from his market's description:

My Manifold survey will include some questions about demographics, including one about the respondents' gender (the same question as the one on Pat's survey) and one about their race.

@Stralor I read it as him going to simply ask the same question, but I guess providing a specific example indicates he's going to use the same subset of answers as well.

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