This bet assumes Robert F Kennedy Jr loses the Democratic primary. The question is does he announce himself as an Independent candidate and is he on more than 5 states' ballots in the 2024 US Presidential election?
1,000
3.00Can this resolve already? He's currently secured ballot access in 10 states.
So far, the campaign reports to have enough signatures to appear on the presidential ballot in Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire and Utah. A super PAC supporting Kennedy has claimed to secure enough signatures for Kennedy to appear on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina and Michigan.
https://www.npr.org/2024/03/13/1237622705/rfk-independent-candidate-ballot-access
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. qualifies for presidential ballot in Utah, the first state to grant him access
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/03/robert-kennedy-2024-utah-00133603
The Kennedies are resourced financially and have the drive to do what it takes. As some of the elites in America, they feel entitled to be part of the race. As it stands, they are more on the democrats side but the democrats have plenty of candidates in waiting, as compared to the Republicans. Based on that, it is likely that Kennedy will stand as an independent.
It's weird that at this moment this market is higher (at 71%) than this linked one (at 62%), given that this market requires that he manage ballot access in at least six states and the other one doesn't have such a standard.