Will January 2025 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled January in the Global table at this link.
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3.00The month to beat is January 2024, with an anomaly of 1.29°C. From this chart of daily surface air temperature we can see that the first half of this month has been warmer than last year and also that, on average, temperatures tend to rise after this part of the month.
@cherrvak The trend for temperatures for every January tending to rise at the end of the month applies to last year also so that doesn't really matter, but each year's temperatures have quite a bit of variability from the trend, and even though I agree it's more likely now than not the forecast from GEFS does show a bit of a dip up near the end of the month whereas last year it was a more steady rise until the end of January.
My chart for GEFS-BC forecasts (6hour averages) adjusted to ERA5:
