Which of the following forecasts will correctly predict the winner of the 2024 presidential election on October 18th?
2
αΉ€25
Oct 18
50%
Polymarket Overall Candidate Odds
50%
Polymarket Electoral College Totals Forecast
50%
Manifold Overall Party Odds
50%
Manifold Electoral College Totals Forecast
50%
Metaculus Overall Candidate Odds
50%
Metaculus Electoral College Totals Forecast
50%
PredictIt Overall Candidate Odds
50%
PredictIt Electoral College Margin Forecast
50%
538 Forecast
50%
Nate Silver Forecast
50%
JHK Overall Candidate Odds
50%
JHK Electoral College Totals Forecast
50%
Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House"
50%
None of these
50%
Election Betting Odds

Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 pm on October 18th.

Difference between Electoral College Totals Forecast and Overall Candidate Odds:

Some forecasts/markets measure the likelihood a candidate will win independently of their forecast for Electoral College Totals. Accordingly, those forecasts/markets with that ability have been split into two separate questions. For an Electoral College Total forecast to be correct it does not need to show the correct number of electoral votes, it simply must show the winner of the election getting a majority of the Electoral College votes.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the candidate sworn in will be considered the winner.

#️ Politics
#πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ US Politics
#πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 2024 US Presidential Election
#Trump
#Democratic Party
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