Predictions will be locked in starting at 12:01 pm on November 4th. The winner will be the forecast that comes the closest to predicting the actual electoral vote count for each candidate. In the case of a tie, the win will be split among the correct answers. Should I be unable to ascertain the predicted electoral vote count from one of the options, that option will resolve to "NO".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and CNN. This market will resolve once all three sources make their final calls about the electoral college totals. If those outlets fail to come to a consensus, then the results entered into the Congressional Record at the joint session of Congress where the winner is certified will control.
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3.00@HillaryClinton Based on the prediction of each candidate's final electoral college totals. I just checked the predictions and only two have the same final totals (Kalshi and Polymarket). As it says in the rules in the case of a tie, the wind will be split amongst the correct answers.
@traders Please take notice: Tomorrow at 8:00 am EDT I will add Kalshi Electoral College forecast as an option. That forecast can be found at this link https://kalshi.com/elections-dash
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@traders For your information, tomorrow at 9:30 am EDT the answer currently labeled "Manifold Overall Party Odds" will be renamed to "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" and an additional answer will be added titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)". The market named "Manifold Overall Party Odds (Mana)" will be the one that uses mana for trades and the one titled "Manifold Overall Party Odds (sweepcash)" will be the one that uses sweepcash for trades. As there have yet to be markets for individual state electoral college votes using sweepcash, I will not be adding a sweepcash version of the "Manifold Electoral College Totals Forecast". If that changes you will receive 12-hours notice.
@OracleAtWiFi Other is added by default to markets where it is possible to add more answers. Because I kept my ability to add additional answers, the "other" option exists to cover those other answers. I do not forsee adding any additional answers at this time.