Which of the above-listed people will be confirmed by the Senate?

§1 - This market will resolve to the percentage of Sentors [out of 100] that voted yea to confirm the nomination. The vote of the vice-president will not be counted. The percentage will always be the number of senators voting yaa divided by 100 regardless of whether there is a vacancy in the Senate or if some Senators do not vote. A voice vote or confirmation by unanimous consent on a nominee will count as all senators voting for that nominee.

§2 - If the nomination is withdrawn after it is formally submitted to the Senate, the market will resolve fully to "no" if a nomination is withdrawn, returned to the president under paragraph 6 of rule XXXI of the standing rules of the Senate, or not acted upon by the Senate for 100 days without an official vote on the nomination. The only vote that will matter for the purposes of this question is the official vote on confirmation. Only the first vote on confirmation of the nominee will count. If there is another vote being held on a nominee, there may be a separate market for that vote.

§3 - If a nomination has not been submitted to the Senate after the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, that nominees's market will resolve N/A.

§4 - A recess appointment will not be sufficient to resolve a market to "yes"

§5 - On Adding Answers:

• I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market, such as, if the person has not been announced as a nominee to a Senate confirmable position

• If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A

§6 - Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.

• Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - §3: If a nomination has not been submitted to the Senate after the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, that nominee's market will resolve N/A.

  • §1: A voice vote or confirmation by unanimous consent on a nominee will count as all senators voting for that nominee.