What will happen in the survivor finale? This market resolves based on the most reasonable understanding of the different criteria. Questions can be asked in the comments for clarification.
On Adding Answers:
I reserve the right to N/A any answer that is not in keeping with the spirit of this market
If an answer is added after that answer has already satisfied the criteria to resolve, that answer will resolve N/A
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. The unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Statement on Liquidity:
If traders on this market independently add Ṁ225 of liquidity to this market, I will upgrade this market to Plus status
Update 2024-18-12 (PST): A logo shown in the segment usually reserved for the 'next time on Survivor' will also count. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-19-12 (PST): Markets related to the fire duel will resolve as N/A unless a specific time length is provided in the exit press. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-20-12 (PST): The fire duel duration market will resolve based on the edited duration plus estimated unedited time based on exit press, editing style, and historical fire duel patterns. The edited duration of 3 minutes and 50 seconds plus an estimated 1 minute and 10 seconds of unedited footage leads to a total duration over 5 minutes, resolving to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
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@traders Hi all, I'm trying to figure out how to resolve the "The fire duel is completed in under 5 minutes" market. If you have any thoughts please reply to this comment.
@AaronSimansky have you investigated post game interviews? I would look at a few of them and if necessary resolve on vibes (eg if people mention that it was quick / long). Alternatively you could try asking a contestant/juror on social media
@Mad @traders After rewatching the fire duel and listening to exit press I have come to the following conclusion. The edited version lasted 3 minutes and 50 seconds. Based on exit press, the way it was edited, and the history of the fire duels, I think it is reasonable to assume that at least 1 minute and 10 seconds were edited out. So I will resolve the "The fire duel is completed in under 5 minutes" market to "NO". If you would like to dispute this please reply to this comment.
@Mad a combo of existing challenges wouldn't count, so eg stacking a card house to a certain level followed by going across a balance beam to do a logo puzzle would not be brand new. However if instead of a logo puzzle it was a new puzzle, it would count. Hope that makes sense.
@Mad@Mad @AaronSimansky I would have said that this one wasn't brand new, the bat puzzle, combination lock, net crawl, machete rope, etc were all things we've seen before. The only thing that I'm not 100% sure was the part with unwinding the rope with the stick. I understand it's a tough call though!
@AaronSimansky there's definitely been a hanging bat puzzle before, in millenials vs gen x and also 43 https://survivor.fandom.com/wiki/The_Obstacle_Course
@Mad I think that this was a brand new challenge it differed in specifics and nature from the previous challenges and the element of unwinding a rope with a stick.