This market resolves YES if more than one ballot is required to elect the Speaker of the House for the 119th Congress when voting begins in January 2025. Resolution will be based on official House records from clerk.house.gov.
Resolution criteria:
YES if multiple roll call votes are needed to elect a Speaker
NO if a Speaker is elected on the first ballot
Source for resolution: https://clerk.house.gov/FloorSummary
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
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@AaronSimansky The House is voting on the speaker now. Mike Johnson has failed to secure a majority of votes on the first ballot, with at least three members voting against him.