Background The Speaker of the House election occurs at the start of each new Congress. Under General Parliamentary Law, any Member-elect can nominate anyone from the floor during the election process, not just the candidates nominated by party caucuses. Members are also not restricted to voting only for party-nominated candidates.
The two main party nominees are expected to be Mike Johnson (Republican) and Hakeem Jeffries (Democrat). However, given recent precedent in the 118th Congress where multiple candidates received votes, additional nominations are possible.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if more than two individuals are formally nominated for Speaker during any single ballot in the first Speakership election of the 119th Congress in January 2025. It will resolve NO if only two or fewer names are placed into nomination across all ballots.
A formal nomination occurs when a Member-elect rises to nominate someone during the nomination phase of any ballot. Simply receiving votes during the roll call does not count as a nomination - the person must be formally nominated during the nomination phase.
If the first Speakership election of the 119th Congress does not occur for any reason, this market will resolve N/A.
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself.While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
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@benshindel The title clearly says how many names will be placed into nomination not how many names will be voted for. I don’t see how this could be read to mean the number of names voted for. Additionally the rules clearly state,
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself.While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
I don’t know how much more clear I could make this.
@AaronSimansky “placed into nomination” traditionally includes names that are voted for! By voting for a candidate, you are indeed nominating them for the position. i see that your resolution criteria clarified this, but it’s quite unintuitive because of this.