Will TikTok get banned in the United States?
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You need to set a date for this market to close (for example, will TikTok be banned before the end of 2025?), otherwise NO shares are worthless (because the market would never resolve as NO if you just keep extending it
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@SusanneinFrance It shouldn't resolve, because if ByteDance sells off TikTok, then it won't be banned. There's no resolution yet.
@Aae643 In other words, Congress is probably not going to release a statement saying, "No, we have decided we won't ban TikTok." Or, maybe a bill banning TikTok fails to pass . . . but there could always be another bill. So how and when will you know that the government is not choosing to ban TikTok?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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