See the question and its resolution criteria on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17763/threads-more-users-than-twitter-before-2026/

This question resolves as YES if, before Dec 31, 2025, Meta publicly reports Threads has a Monthly Active User number higher than the best public estimates of Twitter's MAUs at that time, and NO otherwise.

Resolves the same way as the linked quesiton on Metaculus.