MANIFOLD
Will Russia legally end the ongoing military mobilization before the end of 2023?
45
Ṁ850Ṁ12k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Background

At the end of October 2022, Russian officials announced that partial mobilization was over. However, it has not been ended by decree or any other legal act. This fact has several legal ramifications. Already mobilized conscripts are not allowed to resign. Several Russian laws contain the legal concept of a "period of mobilization" that sometimes toughens the punishment. Finally, there will be fewer legal obstacles to starting a "second wave" of mobilization.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves "YES" if, before the market close, Russia legally ends its "mobilization period" for at least two weeks, meaning there is a decree (or any other legal act) ending the ongoing mobilization and no new decrees starting a new mobilization are issued in two weeks after that.

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As far as I can tell, they haven't ended it with another decree or order. They also don't really have an incentive to end it. If anything there is an incentive for the opposite: the war is still going on.

As a Russian I'd be surprised if they officially ended mobilization before the war ends

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