Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.

Resolution Criteria

This questions resolves Yes if credible sources report that Gazprom (or its successor) and Naftogaz/Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) (or the entity that owns the Ukrainian gas transit system at the time) has:

• prolonged the current 5-year agreement, or

• signed a new agreement

before January 1, 2025, which allows Gazprom to transit gas through Ukraine to a point outside of Ukraine. If no such report is made before January 1 , 2025, this question resolves as No.

Fine Print

The agreement must have a length of at least 1 year to count. An agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian governments would also count towards resolution of this question.