Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?
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Resolves the same as the original question on Metaculus.
Resolution Criteria
This questions resolves Yes if credible sources report that Gazprom (or its successor) and Naftogaz/Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) (or the entity that owns the Ukrainian gas transit system at the time) has:
prolonged the current 5-year agreement, or
signed a new agreement
before January 1, 2025, which allows Gazprom to transit gas through Ukraine to a point outside of Ukraine. If no such report is made before January 1 , 2025, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print
The agreement must have a length of at least 1 year to count. An agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian governments would also count towards resolution of this question.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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