Resolves the same way as the corresponding Metaculus question.

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves as Yes if credible sources report that a spacecraft built by humans has successfully landed on any of Jupiter's moons before January 1, 2050. Otherwise, it resolves as No.

Fine Print

For the purposes of this question, "successfully landed" will be defined as:

• The lander remains intact and able to communicate with the Earth

• The landing does not prevent at least some of the lander's payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.

For example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as Yes. (This does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as time capsules might survive impact.)

Any landers must land before January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before January 7, 2050, regarding whether the criteria for a successful landing have been met.