This market will be resolved according to the yearly report of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. The report will probably be published in February 2024. I'll try to resolve this market shortly after that. If the report is not published by March 15th, 2024, this market resolves N/A. If the number is out of market range, I will choose the corresponding bound.
Link to the 2021 yearly report: https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/palestinian-terrorism-2021-summary-types-and-trends/
Note that I don't give any definitions of the term "significant terrorist attack." I will just use the number given by the source.
Historical numbers since 2013
2021: 54 (including 30 stabbing attacks, 8 vehicular ramming attacks, 12 shooting attacks, and 3 combined attacks)
2020: 40 (including 19 stabbings, 6 vehicular rammings, 5 shootings, 6 IEDs - improvised explosive devices, and 2 combined attacks)
2019: 34 (including 19 stabbing attacks, 6 shooting attacks, 3 vehicular attacks, and 4 IED attacks)
2018: 55 (including 22 stabbings, 13 vehicular attacks, 13 shootings, and 3 IEDs)
2017: 82 (including 46 stabbing attacks, 20 shooting attacks, 10 vehicular attacks, 5 combined attacks, and 1 hand grenade)
2016: 142 (including 87 stabbings, 32 shootings, 11 vehicular attacks, 5 IEDs, and 3 combined attacks)
2015: 171 (including 109 stabbings, 18 shootings, 31 vehicular attack, 6 combined attacks, 3 IEDs, and 3 stone attacks)
2014: 30
2013: 21
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
1,000
3.00Unfortunately, terrorism-info.org.il has not yet released its annual report for 2023. I'll wait until the end of March. If there is no report by then, I'll likely resolve this market as N/A. The issue here is that the resolution of this market relies heavily on the perspective of the creators of the report - whether an attack should be considered 'significant'.
However, I'll also consider a possibility to estimate the number by analyzing their more frequent reports from 2023 and early 2024.
I just re-read the market description. It states that "If the report is not published by March 15th, 2024, this market resolves N/A." So I have to resolve it as N/A.