This market will be resolved according to the yearly report of the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. The report will probably be published in February 2024. I'll try to resolve this market shortly after that. If the report is not published by March 15th, 2024, this market resolves N/A. If the number is out of market range, I will choose the corresponding bound.

Link to the 2021 yearly report: https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/palestinian-terrorism-2021-summary-types-and-trends/

Note that I don't give any definitions of the term "significant terrorist attack." I will just use the number given by the source.

Historical numbers since 2013

2021: 54 (including 30 stabbing attacks, 8 vehicular ramming attacks, 12 shooting attacks, and 3 combined attacks)

2020: 40 (including 19 stabbings, 6 vehicular rammings, 5 shootings, 6 IEDs - improvised explosive devices, and 2 combined attacks)

2019: 34 (including 19 stabbing attacks, 6 shooting attacks, 3 vehicular attacks, and 4 IED attacks)

2018: 55 (including 22 stabbings, 13 vehicular attacks, 13 shootings, and 3 IEDs)

2017: 82 (including 46 stabbing attacks, 20 shooting attacks, 10 vehicular attacks, 5 combined attacks, and 1 hand grenade)

2016: 142 (including 87 stabbings, 32 shootings, 11 vehicular attacks, 5 IEDs, and 3 combined attacks)

2015: 171 (including 109 stabbings, 18 shootings, 31 vehicular attack, 6 combined attacks, 3 IEDs, and 3 stone attacks)

2014: 30

2013: 21

Author betting policy

I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.