Main sources for market resolution:

1. https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel

2. Reports from https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en

3. Any other source that I am convinced is credible enough

Resolution criteria

If the first and second source show similar numbers (10% difference or less), the resulting number will be taken from the first one, otherwise I will try to find some other credible source or just use some weighted average of the first two sources.

If the final number is out of market range, I will choose the corresponding bound.

The second source will probably publish a year report somewhere in february 2024. I'll try to resolve this market shortly after that.

Author betting policy

I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.

See also: