Main sources for market resolution:
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/palestinian-rocket-and-mortar-attacks-against-israel
Reports from https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en
Any other source that I am convinced is credible enough
Resolution criteria
If the first and second source show similar numbers (10% difference or less), the resulting number will be taken from the first one, otherwise I will try to find some other credible source or just use some weighted average of the first two sources.
If the final number is out of market range, I will choose the corresponding bound.
The second source will probably publish a year report somewhere in february 2024. I'll try to resolve this market shortly after that.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
See also:
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Unfortunately, terrorism-info.org.il have not yet produced a unified report for 2023. But we can use its estimate for January 1, 2024 (for the period since October 7, 2023) - 10600 in total, and an estimate for September 23, 2023 - 1227. This gives us a total of 11827.
The number given by the Jewish Virtual Library is obviously misleading (their estimate for the period October 7 - December 31 is only 6000, which is exactly their number for the period October 7 - 12). I assume they included rockets fired after October 12 into the number for January 1 - 19. Luckily we have the number given by them at the beginning of January 2024 - 14581+ (see my response to a comment by @a).
The percent difference between these two estimates is (14581-11827)/11827 = 23%, which is greater than 10%, therefore I will use arithmetic averaging.
Another source (wikipedia) gives us 12141 rockets/mortar shells in total (but it is incomplete, since it does not include any data for December), and it partially references terrorism-info.org.il.
The resulting number is calculated as an arithmetic average for the early January estimate from the Jewish Virtual Library (14581) and from Meir Amit's Center (11827): 13204.
@a if my calculation is correct, it's 14581+ rockets according to jewishvirtuallibrary.org.
I could not find the whole-year estimate from https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en, but their estimate for the period since October 7 is somewhat lower - 10600 vs. 13000. Although I am not sure if they included attacks from Lebanon in their count. https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-december-31-2023/
Hamas claims they fired over 5,000 rockets in the initial phase of the operation. Combined with the ~ 1500 rockets that had been fired before, the total count may already have reached 6500, and it might increase further as the conflict continues.
https://www.barrons.com/news/over-5-000-rockets-fired-as-operation-al-aqsa-flood-begins-hamas-armed-wing-9229e907
@a Sent this too early but it seems likely to be >400 especially if conflict with Hamas flares up. My heart goes out to Israeli civilians.
