How many rockets, mortars, and missiles will be fired at Israel during 2023?
resolved Mar 17

Main sources for market resolution:


  2. Reports from

  3. Any other source that I am convinced is credible enough

Resolution criteria

If the first and second source show similar numbers (10% difference or less), the resulting number will be taken from the first one, otherwise I will try to find some other credible source or just use some weighted average of the first two sources.

If the final number is out of market range, I will choose the corresponding bound.

The second source will probably publish a year report somewhere in february 2024. I'll try to resolve this market shortly after that.

Author betting policy

I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.

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Unfortunately, have not yet produced a unified report for 2023. But we can use its estimate for January 1, 2024 (for the period since October 7, 2023) - 10600 in total, and an estimate for September 23, 2023 - 1227. This gives us a total of 11827.

The number given by the Jewish Virtual Library is obviously misleading (their estimate for the period October 7 - December 31 is only 6000, which is exactly their number for the period October 7 - 12). I assume they included rockets fired after October 12 into the number for January 1 - 19. Luckily we have the number given by them at the beginning of January 2024 - 14581+ (see my response to a comment by @a).

The percent difference between these two estimates is (14581-11827)/11827 = 23%, which is greater than 10%, therefore I will use arithmetic averaging.

Another source (wikipedia) gives us 12141 rockets/mortar shells in total (but it is incomplete, since it does not include any data for December), and it partially references

The resulting number is calculated as an arithmetic average for the early January estimate from the Jewish Virtual Library (14581) and from Meir Amit's Center (11827): 13204.

bought Ṁ700 of HIGHER

Jewish Virtual Library is now reporting that over 13,000 rockets have been fired at Israel since the October 7 attacks.

predicted HIGHER

@a if my calculation is correct, it's 14581+ rockets according to

I could not find the whole-year estimate from, but their estimate for the period since October 7 is somewhat lower - 10600 vs. 13000. Although I am not sure if they included attacks from Lebanon in their count.

bought Ṁ90 of HIGHER

Hamas claims they fired over 5,000 rockets in the initial phase of the operation. Combined with the ~ 1500 rockets that had been fired before, the total count may already have reached 6500, and it might increase further as the conflict continues.

bought Ṁ30 of HIGHER

This looked like a big barrage

bought Ṁ5 of HIGHER

1608 so far

From the first source:
2022 - 1,114 rockets
2021 - 4,425 rockets
2020 - 135 rockets
2019 - 643 rockets
2018 - at least 354 rockets and mortars

bought Ṁ25 of HIGHER

@a Sent this too early but it seems likely to be >400 especially if conflict with Hamas flares up. My heart goes out to Israeli civilians.

@a 1,575 so far in 2023

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