How many confirmed civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before the end of 2023? (dead or injured, according to OHCHR)
13
110
470
resolved Jan 4
Resolved
27K

This market will be resolved according to the most relevant OHCHR report.

The most relevant number of casualties at the market start is 17,023 (28 November 2022 report).

UPD 2022-12-14: Note that OHCHR reports contain only the number of confirmed casualties. The actual number is considered to be significantly higher.

UPD 2022-12-24: changed the market question to better match resolution criteria and to be prettier: "How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before the end of 2023? (dead or injured, according to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights)" → "How many confirmed civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before the end of 2023? (dead or injured, according to OHCHR)"

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predicted HIGHER

It seems that I'll have to resolve to 27449. I will wait one more day in case some new information comes in.

predicted HIGHER

The latest report I could find is from 2023-09-24, and it states that 27,449 civilian casualties were recorded: https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/09/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-24-september-2023
Did anyone see a more current report?

predicted LOWER

Somewhat related question:

bought Ṁ1 of LOWER

2022-10-31: 16295, 2022-11-28: 17023

Simple extrapolation gives 27371 at 2023-12-31. Market estimate seems too high.

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