Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if credible reporting confirms that Iranian-aligned armed groups in Iraq face airstrikes before February 1, 2026. Airstrikes may be conducted by the United States, Israel, or other actors. Resolution requires verification from established news sources (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, major regional outlets) or official government statements. The market resolves NO if no such airstrikes occur by the deadline.

Background

Several powerful Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq are prepared to disarm following repeated warnings issued privately by US officials since Trump took power in January, with the US warning that unless Iraq acts to disband the militias, America could target the groups with airstrikes. US officials told the Wall Street Journal on January 12 that Trump is weighing diplomacy against military strikes but currently "favors" using military action against Iran. Some prominent Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, have refused to disarm. CENTCOM forces have previously conducted unilateral airstrikes against three facilities used by Iranian-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah militia group and other Iran-affiliated groups in Iraq.

Considerations

Approximately 800 members of Iraqi Shia militia groups, including Kata'ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Sayyid al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organisation, were sent to Iran in early January 2026 to assist Iranian security forces in suppressing protests. This deployment may affect the operational status and locations of these groups during the resolution period.