32. Will China have fewer than 100,000 COVID cases in 2022 (official estimate)? | Manifold

32. Will China have fewer than 100,000 COVID cases in 2022 (official estimate)?

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resolved Apr 24

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From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten. Apr 24, 6:03pm: Almost 1 million cases according to government data reported to WHO: https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn

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They've already reported well over 100,000 cases in Shanghai alone. https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1513348194167578630?s=20&t=S74xXChwCgzNOGPfla1RvQ

Assuming mainland China. Excludes Hong Kong,

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