resolved Feb 1

57

31. Will CDC recommend that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax by the end of 2022?

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

ACX 2022 Predictions

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Stephen	Ṁ48
2	Duncn	Ṁ26
3	AJ Solimine	Ṁ25
4	Valentin Manès	Ṁ23
5	Jeremy Belzer-Adams	Ṁ19

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Droideka30predicted YES at 94%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html Though this doesn't explicitly recommend 4 jabs, it does recommend that adults who have had "2 or more" shots, and have not had the bivalent booster, get the bivalent booster. Given that many people got the monovalent booster, I'd say this definitely counts as "recommending that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax".

Martin Randallpredicted NO at 74% https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/s0328-covid-19-boosters.html Sure. But this is allowing, not recommending, and only for a small fraction of people. I don't understand why this market is so high.

Duncnbought Ṁ1 of YESIf they recommend it for at-risk groups, does that count? Or rather, any predictions as to whether Scott will count it?

Droideka30 bought Ṁ100 YES from 95% to 96%

Droideka30 bought Ṁ100 YES from 94% to 95%

Michael Wheatley filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ3,095 NO at 94% (cancelled)

Michael Wheatley bought Ṁ619 YES from 93% to 98%

Michael Wheatley filled limit order Ṁ0/Ṁ619 NO at 98% (cancelled)

Eugen Grue sold Ṁ25 YES from 94% to 93%

Danny O'Brien sold Ṁ5 YES at 94%

tcheasdfjkl bought Ṁ100 YES from 90% to 94%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ0 NO at 90%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ60/Ṁ60 YES at 90%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ15 NO at 86%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 93%

Bob sold Ṁ34 YES from 91% to 89%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ2 NO at 91%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 91%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 5% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 4% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 2% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 3% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 6% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 8% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ5 YES at 12% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 9% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 10% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 15% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ4 YES at 20% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ8 YES at 21% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ14 YES at 25% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 5% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 20% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 8% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 12% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 10% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 9% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 2% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 3% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 4% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 6% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ11 YES at 25% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 7% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 15% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 YES at 21% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 2% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 1.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 3% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 9% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 4% (cancelled)

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