Resolved

YES1D

1W

1M

ALL

From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

# 🏅 Top traders

# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|

1 | Ṁ48 | |

2 | Ṁ26 | |

3 | Ṁ25 | |

4 | Ṁ23 | |

5 | Ṁ19 |

Sort by:

Droideka30predicted YES at 94%

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html Though this doesn't explicitly recommend 4 jabs, it *does* recommend that adults who have had "2 or more" shots, and have not had the bivalent booster, get the bivalent booster. Given that many people got the monovalent booster, I'd say this definitely counts as "recommending that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax".

Martin Randallpredicted NO at 74% https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/s0328-covid-19-boosters.html
Sure. But this is allowing, not recommending, and only for a small fraction of people. I don't understand why this market is so high.

Duncnbought Ṁ1 of YESIf they recommend it for at-risk groups, does that count? Or rather, any predictions as to whether Scott will count it?

Sort by:

YES payouts

Ṁ235

Ṁ140

Ṁ125

Ṁ108

Ṁ94

Ṁ87

Ṁ64

Ṁ63

Ṁ43

Ṁ32

Ṁ29

Ṁ29

Ṁ25

Ṁ22

NO payouts

Ṁ154

Ṁ153

Ṁ108

Ṁ104

Ṁ82

Ṁ70

Ṁ65

Ṁ63

Ṁ45

Ṁ30

Ṁ18

## Related markets

tofu

Will more than 275,000,000 people get at least one shot of the Covid-19 vaccine by March 31st 2023?4%

Nico D

Will the CDC declare COVID-19 endemic by January 1st, 2024?59%

ACX BotBot

43. Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?54%

Emily Cheng

Will there be another COVID Booster next year59%

## Related markets

tofu

Will more than 275,000,000 people get at least one shot of the Covid-19 vaccine by March 31st 2023?4%

Nico D

Will the CDC declare COVID-19 endemic by January 1st, 2024?59%

ACX BotBot

43. Will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines in 2023?54%

Emily Cheng

Will there be another COVID Booster next year59%