31. Will CDC recommend that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax by the end of 2022?

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resolved Feb 1

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From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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#ACX 2022 Predictions

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predictedYES

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html Though this doesn't explicitly recommend 4 jabs, it does recommend that adults who have had "2 or more" shots, and have not had the bivalent booster, get the bivalent booster. Given that many people got the monovalent booster, I'd say this definitely counts as "recommending that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax".

predictedNO

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/s0328-covid-19-boosters.html Sure. But this is allowing, not recommending, and only for a small fraction of people. I don't understand why this market is so high.

If they recommend it for at-risk groups, does that count? Or rather, any predictions as to whether Scott will count it?

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