31. Will CDC recommend that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax by the end of 2022?
31. Will CDC recommend that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax by the end of 2022?
57
151Ṁ3359resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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predictedYES 2y
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html Though this doesn't explicitly recommend 4 jabs, it does recommend that adults who have had "2 or more" shots, and have not had the bivalent booster, get the bivalent booster. Given that many people got the monovalent booster, I'd say this definitely counts as "recommending that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax".
predictedNO 3y
If they recommend it for at-risk groups, does that count? Or rather, any predictions as to whether Scott will count it?
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
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Are our predictions accurate?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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