Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
From Scott Alexander's COVID predictions for 2022 on Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/predictions-for-2022-contest
Resolved according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
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1 | Ṁ48 | |
2 | Ṁ26 | |
3 | Ṁ25 | |
4 | Ṁ23 | |
5 | Ṁ19 |
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Droideka30predicted YES at 94%
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/stay-up-to-date.html Though this doesn't explicitly recommend 4 jabs, it does recommend that adults who have had "2 or more" shots, and have not had the bivalent booster, get the bivalent booster. Given that many people got the monovalent booster, I'd say this definitely counts as "recommending that triple-vaxxed people get at least one more vax".
Martin Randallpredicted NO at 74% https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/s0328-covid-19-boosters.html
Sure. But this is allowing, not recommending, and only for a small fraction of people. I don't understand why this market is so high.

Duncnbought Ṁ1 of YESIf they recommend it for at-risk groups, does that count? Or rather, any predictions as to whether Scott will count it?
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YES payouts
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