This is question #25 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.
If the UK holds a general election, it would take a minor miracle for the Tories to hold on. So the way this isn’t true is most of the time there is an election, plus the times he loses the leadership. There doesn’t seem to be much love for Sunak but there is also no alternative, it’s a thankless job with no good candidates, and there is no obvious precipitating event on the horizon. The relationship between this and the next market seems reasonable to me. However, Sunak’s chances improve every day that things are quiet even more than the reduced time left, since his survival should be somewhat Lindy. Market isn’t adjusting. I bought M200 of YES to move it to 85%.