At approximately market close, I will visit the following page in an Incognito window: twitter.com/elonmusk/
If that redirects to a login page (or full screen pop-up) the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
If others are able to check at the exact close time and provide screenshots I will accept that as proof unless there's reason to believe it's fraudulent. Otherwise it will be based on whenever I check, even if that turns out to be a bit later than the exact close (could be up to 48 hours, though I'll try my best to be quicker than that).
Any changes to the login wall between now and close don't matter, just the end state at close time as described above. It doesn't matter whether the login page can be bypassed/dismissed.
Same rules as the previous version of this market:
Clarifications:
Regarding "Fullscreen pop-up" -- any kind of modal pop-up that prevents interacting with the page content will count. If it's just a small pop-up on the side that can be ignored it won't count.
If Twitter no longer exists at market close this resolves N/A.
If Twitter ("X") is renamed etc. but otherwise seems to be a continuation of the same entity, that will not affect the resolution of this market.
To define login page: It needs to have the primary purpose of telling the user that they need to log in. So if the page just has the normal "log in or sign up" options in a small bar next to some content that's otherwise relevant, that would be NO. But if the page has a message explicitly stating "we're showing you this irrelevant content because you're not logged in" that would be YES. If the page is so blatantly irrelevant that it's obviously intended to send that message (e.g. a big picture of a troll face) and includes a log-in button that would be YES. Showing tweets that are old but otherwise relevant would be NO if there's no explicit message. (See https://manifold.markets/A/will-twitter-x-have-a-login-wall-on#IdkKb5b9xzxkxK0NAdc8)
Since the above may be slightly subjective, I won't bet.
Context: https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/30/twitter-now-requires-an-account-to-view-tweets/
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@A how will you resolve if it's in its current state? It's not a login page or a full-screen popup, but neither is it Musk's latest tweets that you see when you currently go to the page. Looks like all-time most popular tweets, or something like that. A literal reading of your resolution criteria says this resolves NO, but I want to be sure before betting too much.
@chrisjbillington Interesting, yeah for me it currently displays a page that shows some Elon Musk tweets but not his latest ones. If it remains that way on the resolve date it would resolve NO as you said. If it shows a page that has somewhat relevant content on it and doesn't have the primary purpose of explicitly prompting the user to log in, that's not a login wall IMO, it's just a change to what content is on that page. On the other hand if the page of old Elon tweets had a message on it saying something like "these are old tweets, you'll have to log in to see the new ones you asked for" that would be a YES (the current small login bar at the top isn't sufficient to count for that, it needs to be more blatant).