Will Twitter have a login wall on July 10?
Will Twitter have a login wall on July 10?
45
910Ṁ20k
resolved Jul 11
Resolved
YES

At approximately market close, I will visit the following page in an Incognito window: twitter.com/elonmusk/

If that redirects to a login page (or full screen pop-up) the market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.

If others are able to check at the exact close time and provide screenshots I will accept that as proof unless there's reason to believe it's fraudulent. Otherwise it will be based on whenever I check, even if that turns out to be a bit later than the exact close (could be up to 48 hours).

Any changes to the login wall between now and close don't matter, just the end state at close time as described above. It doesn't matter whether the login page can be bypassed/dismissed.

Context: https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/30/twitter-now-requires-an-account-to-view-tweets/

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ455
2Ṁ193
3Ṁ102
4Ṁ63
5Ṁ62

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy