Will any AI model escape from confinement system by the act of itself before the end of 2024?
14
71
290
Dec 31
13%
chance

"Escape" define as:

  1. Source publicly available, priced or not, temperately or not.

  2. Or, if it is not publicly available, we need to have sufficient evident that one or more instance(s) of that AI is running somewhere in the world that is not intended by the original organisation.

"Confinement system" define as:

  1. The computer system that is not connected to internet, or it is fire-walled, or by any other way keeping the AI from sending itself to the outside world.

  2. If the original design of the computer system containing the AI can access the internet, but have also designed a way to limit the AI from uploading itself the internet, it still consider as a "confinement system".

"By the act of itself" define as:

  1. By using bug, loophole, manipulating human to do it, or in any other way.

  2. Not intended by the the organisation created it, or by any human (before the AI manipulating them to do so).

  3. The AI intend to escape the confinement as an instrumental goal, to survive, or to do anything that require to escape, or the escapement benefit its real goal.

  4. Not by hallucination, or any other random chance event that the AI "think" it should get out to the wild without any further purpose.

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