I will use @FairlyRandom to simulate one die roll each day from April 1st through 6th. I might bet to initialize some market probabilities and also right before each die roll, but not right after rolling.
Rolls so far: 5, 6, 1, 1, 6
Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Process Update:
Days April 1–5: The market will be closed before a die roll is simulated and then reopened after the simulation.
April 6: The market will be closed, the final die roll is simulated, and the market will remain closed.
Update 2025-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification for Resolution Criteria:
The final resolution will be based on the displayed expected value.
This value, as shown in the market interface, will be used even if it differs from the recalculated actual expected value.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ51 | |
| 2 | Ṁ32 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
EV at market close: 4.03
Rolls: 5, 6, 1, 1, 6, 3
So 3 rolls are above the final EV.
@4fa I should have taken a screenshot of the EV at market close, because now it shows "Resolved" instead. Well, fortunately it doesn't make a difference for the resolution in this case.
@StepanBakhmarin Yeah, I wasn't expecting these last minute shenanigans. 😄 Let's see…
@4fa but that just screws it up for for everybody and doesn't get them any profit... Anyways, gotta respect the spirit
@StepanBakhmarin We live and we learn. I once did meticulous projections of trader numbers, but lost Ṁ1,719 in the end, because another trader "made trades on a bunch of […] markets in order to manipulate this market". 🫠
An observation: the expected value is being calculated incorrectly, the displayed value is roughly 0.5 higher than the real one. Is this intended behavior? If not, should @4fa resolve this market according to the real value or the displayed one?
I suspect it's because this kind of market is meant for continuous values and it assumes that possible values between the checkpoints are distributed uniformly, so e.g. a value ≥ 2 but not ≥ 3 is on average 2.5, whereas in this market it is actually exactly 2.
I made a colab to calculate the real expected value conveniently: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1owdEH4cSnyFGF9Ig82qoQ0rOnQPgM64n?usp=sharing.