How often will 6d6 roll a number greater than or equal to this market's expected value at close?
How often will 6d6 roll a number greater than or equal to this market's expected value at close?
14
150Ṁ1243
Apr 6
3.96 times
expected
99%
≥ 1
99%
≥ 2
87%
≥ 3
53%
≥ 4
8%
≥ 5
1%
≥ 6

I will use @FairlyRandom to simulate one die roll each day from April 1st through 6th. I might bet to initialize some market probabilities and also right before each die roll, but not right after rolling.

Rolls so far: 5, 6, 1

  • Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Process Update:

    • Days April 1–5: The market will be closed before a die roll is simulated and then reopened after the simulation.

    • April 6: The market will be closed, the final die roll is simulated, and the market will remain closed.

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reposted 17h

Rolls so far: 5, 6, 1
…and the market is open again.

17h🤖

@4fa your random number is: 1

Salt: u0qcintg0vs, round: 4942246 (signature a37c6528b50b9b5e8873bf1e83ab198220253c26af2db95fa140202496968cb69281e551c6fe6f19dc437bb3c1c650050f8760dbb35896c0192f59f2d86b07017660168937ba086c7dc27f2c42c6116ba5a5ee502ef8b50ee802b458c7034c1c)

17h🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 6, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4942244 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4942246, salt: u0qcintg0vs.

17h
reposted 1d

Rolls so far: 5, 6
…and the market is open again.

1d🤖

@4fa your random number is: 6

Salt: u2azm0nbqv, round: 4939538 (signature 81db5bb1e0a9455f28c97a4bb3cf7c972068af25acf882fe9af93d9313820e33a3a6b66fc6f60c0256afc204b301e9f80cb670a33c389cff9c0f087d88503067a90284b3251a8a7d72ee48b3e2651e1a38297199e6ba62d141e646e86ea1e48c)

1d🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 6, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4939536 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4939538, salt: u2azm0nbqv.

opened a Ṁ2 YES at 15% order1d
reposted

The first roll is a 5, and the market is open again.

2d🤖

@4fa your random number is: 5

Salt: 6z44k3uwhz9, round: 4935724 (signature a9dbf9100fcabd1253e829e56d4e79a3750dd9ba331c51413e44a557108134672fb02caa1a6ac8536b68ef5098d0ad020e0c3a200fcdb4e7163c9f16829c1cec7751f6fa054f20d764f1ccf85bcd1038db98a3d3a27c0bfe32d5118c02e1a489)

2d🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 6, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4935722 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4935724, salt: 6z44k3uwhz9.

2d
opened a Ṁ50 NO at 8% order2d

I will now close the market, simulate one die roll, reopen the market, and repeat tomorrow through April 5th. On April 6th, I will close the market, simulate the last die roll, but I won't reopen the market.

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