Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Do you like 16% odds?
22
Ṁ10kṀ2.2k
resolved Apr 6
Resolved
YES

I would like to test how different odds influence betting behavior. After the market closes, I will call @FairlyRandom to generate a number from 1 to 100. If the number is between 1 and 16, this market resolves to YES; otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will also record betting behavior for this and related markets with varying odds and analyze the data statistically to look for patterns in participants’ decisions.

Fun
FairlyRandom
Psychology
Behavior
Unranked
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ1,169
2Ṁ129
3Ṁ52
4Ṁ52
5Ṁ26

People are also trading

Sort by:

On a more pedantic and meaningless-to-argue-over level, are odds the same thing as a probability or percentage chance? The title implies they're the same.

@Quroe They're not the same, but I kinda like the title format. 😂

@4fa I'm using it in the sense: Do you like odds that correspond to 16% chance?

@4fa

@Quroe I'm using this mixed format because "odds" sounds more like gambling (which this is) and percentage is more intuitive and aligns better with the UI.

But yeah, if I ever redo a given percentage, I might change the title.

@4fa Okay, we're on the same page. 😄

Ouch. That stung.

@Quroe

👀

@Quroe Pretty close to Russian roulette odds, tbf.

@4fa That's pretty funny.

🤖

@4fa your random number is: 13

Salt: a8ss2zepxcc, round: 6002321 (signature 96f18d46e5c47949dec5a426d81019c1ca054931f53064e935329ccb1123c515b5d6bb99529a116e3ca835fbd254461a1475d59df114f105aff265381ef07cf2d1204ef304e53cb699f274f09e2c8a51314bfd80cdfcc179a0904454af0136bb)

🤖

@4fa you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 6002319 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 6002321, salt: a8ss2zepxcc.

@FairlyRandom 100

reposted

Cheap NO shares available for a short time!

People are also trading