Resolution criteria

This market resolves to Yes, within 7 days if Moonshot AI officially releases or launches the model known as Kimi K3.1 (or Kimi 3.1) within 7 days of market creation (by October 30, 2026, 23:59 UTC). Otherwise, it resolves to No, not within 7 days.

• "Release" is defined as any of the following becoming publicly accessible or officially deployed:

  • Availability via the official web interface (kimi.ai / kimi.com) or API.

  • Availability in the official Kimi Code interface.

  • Public release of weights/checkpoints (e.g., on Hugging Face).

  • An official announcement confirming that public or API rollout has commenced.

• Official confirmation will be verified via Moonshot AI / Kimi, the official Kimi account on X (@Kimi_Moonshot), or official Moonshot AI press statements.

• Closed private testing, unannounced internal deployments, or further unreleased teaser materials alone do not qualify as a release.

• Note for creator: Please edit the criteria to specify the exact target timestamp (e.g., precisely 168 hours from creation time) if a specific cutoff is intended.

Background

Following the July 2026 launch of Moonshot AI's flagship 2.8-trillion parameter model Kimi K3, reports and internal API traces pointed toward an incremental upgrade designated Kimi K3.1. Code leaks and internal configurations suggested features including variable reasoning effort settings (low, medium, high, max), native agent modes, and swarm support. On October 23, 2026, Moonshot released a teaser video on social media showcasing a terminal with "Model: Kimi K3.1," leading to widespread speculation of an imminent launch.

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