You must persuade me that I am not a Anti-Superforecaster.
https://manifold.markets/121?tab=trades, view by profit and you will see. At time of market creation, I have 40 markets with at least 100 loss but only 24 with at least 100 gain. Also I have 9 markets with at least 1000 loss and only 2 with at least 1000 gain. My lifetime profit is -18606, but -26606 if you do not count my 8000 mana from mana exploits.
To persuade me, you must find someone who I deem is worse of a forecaster than me. I deem @Tumbles as a better forecaster as he has more profit instances than losses even though his losses are large. Equivalently, try to convince me I am not the worst forecaster on this website.
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How often (as a percentage) are your yes/no-predictions correct?
@121 I mean, it's possible that your success rate on yes/no-predictions is pretty close to 50%, so doing the opposite would still be pretty close to 50%.
However, if you really think it is significantly below 50%, then doing the opposite would indeed lift you significantly above 50%.