https://manifold.markets/121/23-of-average-Q0zqpq9ZAy

if this 15000x hits I will shit my pants

@brod how did you do this 💀

@brod

@121 few tricks, some chicanery, a little tomfoolery

Should this market be resolved n/a because of bad resolution criteria which caused confusion initially?

Poll ends in 24 hours

https://manifold.markets/121/should-this-market-be-resolved-na-b

@121 is the link correct?

currently it points to question creation page

@121

@121 how do you calculate average vote?

e.g. in this situation

suppose that other are zero (almost true - around 1 percent)

is it 0.53 x (0 + 10) / 2 + 0.36 x (11+20) / 2 + 0.1 x (21 + 30) / 2 = 10.78?

@VonGadke It will resolve to 2/3 of the average of this poll: https://manifold.markets/121/guess-23-of-the-average

Guess 2/3 of the average

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guess_2/3_of_the_average

to 2/3 of the average of that poll*

@Bayesian Right, thanks!

@4fa okay, and what is this value at the moment?

@VonGadke At 31 votes, 2/3 times the average of that poll was at 19.4838709677419, so something close to that with currently 33 votes.

@4fa

You mean 67% of average vote?

@hahahahh No, 2/3 of the average vote

@Bayesian (which also rounds up to 67%)

Also, the betting market is not incentivized to connect with the poll in any way. Most beneficial option is to vote in a way that causes the most change, and bet to follow suit. The game theory linked would be like if you gave all the mana winnings to the people who guess correctly, not those who bet correctly.

Bottom 4 options literally impossible, practically 6-7 is not happening. Current 2-3 of avg is 17.7 but a couple 99’s will easily push this much more than more 0’s will

@121 does this resolve to the poll

It resolve to poll average 2/3