Which horse will place last in the first ever Manifold Derby?
Which horse will place last in the first ever Manifold Derby?
47
2.7kṀ120kresolved Mar 14
100%100.0%
Gate #1 - Out of Mana
0.0%
Gate #2 - The Agency
0.0%
Gate #3 - Whalebait
0.0%
Gate #4 - LK-99
0.0%
Gate #5 - TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX
0.0%
Gate #6 - Aella's Fluffer
Racers
TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX
Whalebait
Orange
LK-99
Out of Mana
Aella's Fluffer
The Track
Length: Slightly over 1.25 Miles
Location: @StopPunting Computer Desk
Forecast Conditions: Clear Skies
Test Runs:
Randomized Gate Assignments for the Derby are as Follows:
Gate #1 - Out of Mana
Gate #2 - The Agency
Gate #3 - Whalebait
Gate #4 - LK-99
Gate #5 - TUMBLES FINANCIAL COMPLEX
Gate #6 - Aella's Fluffer
The Derby will take place on March 10th (a Sunday) around 12:00pm EST and will be uploaded here shortly after. There will be only one run.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.