More to be added once artist is announced!
Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Song Debut:
A teaser or partial version of a new song (e.g., 'Bodies/Tiramisu') is considered its debut if performed for the first time.
The later release of a full version does not change its status as a debut performance.
This debut should be counted toward the total number of songs performed.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ426 | |
| 2 | Ṁ136 | |
| 3 | Ṁ95 | |
| 4 | Ṁ87 | |
| 5 | Ṁ64 |
@10thOfficial Hey, I think this might have been resolved incorrectly. The individual seen on stage holding a Palestinian flag was one of Kendrick Lamar’s performers. While his decision to engage in a form of protest was not authorized; he was certainly given security clearance and authorized to be on stage as a member of Lamar’s 400 member performance crew.
@ReeMARKable The moment the performer stood on the car and unfurled their flag, they stepped beyond the bounds of the authorized performance, an act confirmed by their immediate removal.
@10thOfficial I see the argument you’re making and I just think this question warranted a closer look. I think the question “unauthorized person takes the stage” was referring to a spectator(s) rushing onto the stage who are not part of the performance. So to build on your argument about a person stepping beyond the bounds of the authorized performance; if Kendrick Lamar took out a weapon and pointed it up in the air and law enforcement responded by removing him from the stage, you would resolve the question the same way? Kendrick would be deemed an unauthorized person on the stage of a show that he’s been contracted to headline and had been promoted around him for months? I don’t think anyone would say Kendrick Lamar was not authorized to be there lol.
Again I’m not trying to be difficult I just think it’s an interesting discussion to have. Thanks for taking the time to organize and run the market.
@10thOfficial No surprise there, then you would have to forfeit your profits lol. Strange that the only trader profiting from a YES resolution is in fact the same person who is determining the resolution. Sort of like a referee gambling on the very game he’s officiating.
@10thOfficial Multiple sources refer to the first song as a "snippet" (see my screenshots below; I can also provide more sources too), suggesting that only ~10.5 songs were played..
As I explained in more detail below, I think this is quite likely a misresolution.
@snazzlePop Misinterpretation of what qualifies as a “full” song does not change the total number performed. If multiple sources acknowledge the first song as a snippet it still counts as a performed song. This counts any distinct musical segment as a separate song.
@10thOfficial Hmm, okay, I understand what you're saying here.
I wish this had been clarified earlier and I thought it was a bit misleading and felt icky to have the answer worded as fractional songs but then resolve by the integer sum total number of songs that had any portion performed (and also in the market creator's favor for a seemingly somewhat subjective market), BUT it then hit me that virtually all of the songs performed were merely snippets of their full length. 🤣
Finally, (and fwiw, I was going to say this even before I found my peace with your resolution and had been preparing to argue against it--)
I just wanted to echo @probajoelistic in acknowledging and thanking you for creating and managing a fun market.
@10thOfficial Kudos for putting up with so many of these. That takes a lot of effort, but it makes events like this particularly fun. That’s a big advantage of Manifold imo
@probajoelistic I appreciate the kind words, thank you! I try to keep it fun and prevent any ambiguity, still gets me though so I learn and try to improve every year. Hopefully everyone comes out ahead and you've got to love those lottery ticket predictions. Who would have thought there would be a pick 6 in this game? Wild!
“a snippet of a 2024 verse”
https://time.com/7214228/kendrick-lamar-super-bowl-halftime-show-analysis/
@10thOfficial At 10:53, he turns to look directly at the camera and flash a big grin as he says the line 'Say Drake, I hear you like them young'
Original: What happens if/when the full version of 'Bodies' / 'Tiramisu' drops?
The first "song" Kendrick performed in the half time show, 'Bodies' (aka 'Tiramisu'), first appeared on YouTube in November 2024 as an unexpected teaser for his album, GNX. The album hadn't been promoted or even announced until then. It was then released just 30 minutes later as a surprise drop.
The song itself ends abruptly, and it's not clear if the complete track was played/performed in his YT promotional & the halftime performance, or if only a portion was offered as a tease. Some fans expect a longer, full-length version may appear on an as-of-yet-unannounced Disc 2 /Part II / "Deluxe" edition of GNX.
Edit: Added additional context
I'd argue the debut was on November 22nd, when it first dropped on YouTube (see embed below). The question is whether the song is complete or if only < 50% was performed (and heard in the below video).