Who am I thinking of? (guessing game) [💣SHORT FUSE]
26
200Ṁ4803
May 24
0.4%
Resolves to this if nobody gets the right answer
0.1%
Elon Musk
0%
Zvi Mowshowitz
99%
Sam Denby (Wendover)
0.2%
Brodie Smith
0.3%
Other

  • I'm thinking of a specific real person or fictional character. At market closing time (and not before), if someone has added the person I'm thinking of to the market, it will resolve to the person. If the person I'm thinking of has not been added to the market, it will be extended for 1 more week, after which the answer will be revealed.

  • Each user can ask one yes-or-no-question in the comments every twelve hours, which I will try to answer in a reasonable time (note at time of market creation: I might go to bed in a couple hours but I'll answer the first batch of questions quickly)

  • I may reject meta-questions that reveal too much (e.g. "have they already been added to this market") at my discretion.

Sorry for low liquidity, keeping it low to make it cheap to add answers.

I will not bet in this market, of course.

Inspired by https://manifold.markets/remedyrain/who-am-i-guessing-game, attempting to better structure it

  • Update 2025-05-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the person they are thinking of is real. This means fictional characters, originally permitted by the market description, are now excluded.

  • Resolves to placeholder if nobody gets the right answer

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Note: extension period reduced to 1 week

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Is his first name Samuel?

@Shelvacu Hmm... Yes.

Is his last name Denby?

@Shelvacu Yes

Does he have a YouTube channel named after an illness commonly acquired through long distance travel?

@robert yes

Are the first and last letters of his full name in the second half of the alphabet?

@Fion Yes

Is it Sam Denby of Wendover Productions?

(am I even allowed to ask that or do I have to wait until May 24th)

@Shelvacu Answer on May 24th

sold Ṁ7 NO

Are they on nebula (not as a guest)

@digory Yes!

@100Anonymous So they're on the roster here? Nebula

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yes

@100Anonymous Not their face, but 4 channels and a podcast of theirs

Does he live west of the Mississippi River?

@TheSchwa Yes

Does he have a PhD?

@Fion I don't think so.

Are they considered white (i.e. would they mark white on the US census, not counting biracial or latino)?

@Damin Likely yes

My question to be answered in ~9 hours:
If you take the english name of this person's youtube channel with the most subscribers, remove special characters and diacritics, is the hebrew gematria number as shown on https://www.gematrix.org/ even?

Gematria Calculator
Online Gematria Calculator with same phrases values search and words. English Gematria, Hebrew Gematria and Jewish Gematria and Numerology

@Shelvacu Yes

My question: As the market creator, do you think it's worthwhile to keep speculating on what games this person played, as if it's an important part of their fame?

@TiredCliche It's part of their fame for one channel, but not for others

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