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MANIFOLD
Will there be a trend spike for The Third Man Theme before 2038?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ55
2037
29%
chance
18

Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that the Google Trends metric for the term "the third man theme" reaches at least 3x the value it had in Oct 2006, before January 1st 2038

If there is ambiguity about this criteria in the future, then the designated judge will resolve the question based on the totality of public evidence available by the time of resolution. If Google retroactively changes the metric and the spike in Oct 2006 disappears, the judge will be tasked with defining a new threshold (eg. 4.2x the spike in Oct 2009) that best aligns with original intent of this question. If Google Trends is replaced by some other tool, or Google sunsets it altogether, then the judge must find an alternative metric that best aligns with the original intent of this question (to measure a trend spike for this term).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oEsWi88Qv0

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