Fraud, as defined as...
Intentional Misrepresentation
Evidence of knowingly falsifying or manipulating data.
Material Impact
Misrepresented data significantly influenced decisions or approvals.
Deception in Communications
Intentional misleading of stakeholders through false statements.
Regulatory Violations
Violations of securities laws or FDA regulations.
Consequential Harm
Resulting in financial losses, patient risks, or damage to scientific integrity.
Works, as defined as...
Phase 3 trial success or failure, and/or other evidence regarding previous Phases comes to light. Phase 3 success, but Phase 2 fraud, is still a success. Phase 3 success, but Phase 2 fraud, and subsequent disclosure of Phase 3 fraud is a failure.
Timing...
Phase 3 trials ending EOY 2024 and SUMMER 2025
Reading material
Bull case:
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/xjimtz/cassava_sciences_sava_the_real_moon/
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1crsx8p/sava_on_the_brink_of_alzheimers_cure/
Bear case:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_iRNeJXfkO4
https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1f2vm4f/cassava_inc_ready_for_a_spin/
1,000DOJ dropped the fraud case against the researcher "with prejudice," indicating permanent dismissal of any charges. CUNY concluded no scientific misconduct in its investigation. This seems to indicate that there was not sufficient evidence to prove intentional misrepresentation of data. Cassava have never admitted wrongdoing.
https://www.science.org/content/article/justice-department-unexpectedly-drops-fraud-case-against-alzheimer-s-scientist
@mods Seems like both "Simulfilam works" options should resolve NO, since the phase 3 clinical trials failed
https://www.biospace.com/drug-development/cassavas-shares-plunge-as-alzheimers-drug-fails-phase-3