this one: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Avdiivka,+Donetsk+Oblast,+Ukraine
Resolves to my subjective judgement whether they have lost it or not on
2024-03-01. I won't trade in this market.
If it is close, It matters when they lose control of it, not when information comes out that they have lost control of it, so I may extend the close time to allow more information to come out.
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I feel slightly iffy about this because the description says "Resolves to my subjective judgement whether they have lost it or not". If the creator wants it to resolve differently, they can ping me or another mod (or ask on Discord) and we can re-open the market for trading or resolve it to a different answer.
For more information about mod resolutions, you can read the guidelines here: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Resolving-clarifying-markets-301e2d547237459eabf36bd069981e7c
The commander-in-chief of Ukrainian forces had announced they're withdrawing from the city:
Situation looks poor in principle, but could easily allow a longer hold out. Primary defensible locations of Avdiivka and city center are still far from being occupied. Front lines have shortened, which helps defensive position. Urban advance has still been rather limited and movement towards remaining supply route - Kozachyy Prov. - potentially has stalled. Keep in mind it's a matter of when Ukraine will lose control not if... but quite possible to hold out for another 2 weeks. Keep in mind that it took about ~2mo from when Russian entered portions of Bakhmut proper to being able to advance in the city center. The Russian troops apparently are 'professional' and fresher than the ones during Bakhmut advance, but I think 2 weeks+ is still certainly within realm of possibility.
@EricBurns the situation with Bakhmut is different. It was never fully surrounded. In Avdiivka the encirclement is almost complete, and all roads have been cut off. It is impossible to sustainably supply troops through fields. But we will see
@CertaintyOfVictory in case of ambiguity, look at the closing date.
"Question closes Mar 2, 2024, 8:59:00 AM"
@ayylmao, can you explain a bit more how you'll make that determination? For example, if it has become clear that they only control about 70% of it, would you call that losing control over it? What about 50%? Less?
@Dynd To me, it would seem weird to say that someone hasn't lost control of a town if they don't even control 50% of it.