This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new wave of public military mobilization is conducted in Russia before the end of 2026, and to "No" otherwise.

The previous wave of partial mobilization was announced by President Vladimir Putin on September 21, 2022, and resulted in approximately 300,000 reservists being called up. That mobilization was officially declared complete by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu on October 28, 2022, with no further measures planned at that time.

For the purposes of this market, a "new wave of public military mobilization" means an official, publicly announced mobilization decree by the Russian government ordering the compulsory call-up of military reservists or conscripts beyond routine annual conscription cycles. Rumors, covert preparations, legislative changes, or unofficial statements about potential mobilization do not count as resolution events.

Resolution sources: This market will be resolved based on official reports from BBC (bbc.com) or CNN (cnn.com) confirming that a new wave of public mobilization has been formally announced and is being carried out in Russia. If neither BBC nor CNN reports on such an event by the close of December 31, 2026 (23:59 Moscow time), the market will resolve to "No."