Resolution criteria

• This market will resolve to the official percentage of the popular vote received by the Russian United Democratic Party "Yabloko" (Российская объединенная демократическая партия «Яблоко») in the federal party-list (proportional representation) portion of the September 2026 Russian State Duma election.

• The primary source of truth will be the final official results published by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation (CEC).

• If the official CEC website is inaccessible, results reported by reputable independent media outlets (such as Meduza) or the finalized figures published on the Wikipedia page for the 2026 Russian legislative election will be used.

• If Yabloko is disqualified, banned, or its registration is canceled prior to the election such that it does not appear on the party-list ballot, this market will resolve to 0%.

• If the election is canceled or postponed beyond September 30, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

• The 2026 State Duma elections are scheduled to take place from September 18 to 20, 2026.

• Yabloko is a social-liberal Russian opposition party. Following the Central Election Commission's registration of its candidate list in July 2026, Yabloko stands as the only officially registered party on the ballot running on an explicit pro-peace/anti-war platform.

• In the 2021 State Duma elections, Yabloko won 1.34% of the federal party-list vote, failing to clear the 5% threshold required to enter the parliament. In the 2016 elections, they received 1.99% of the vote.

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