Will this market get at least 100 traders?
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100
Ṁ22kresolved Dec 9
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YES1D
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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here’s my thinking. the distribution of the number of traders in manifold markets would be right skewed, a few with a lot. if the market’s growing quickly early that’s evidence it’s in the sliver that gets huge, more evidence than if the distribution of traders was closer to normal. and this market has gotten 23 new traders per day with 5 days left
@summer_of_bliss traders are less likely when the market goes to 99% and there is no EV left. But then someone will try to bet NO which should bring us up to 100