Nov 6

Resolves when an official statement is made declaring the pick.

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@WrongoPhD I’m curious. What information or reasoning motivates such a confident bet?

This market has no business being this high. There's nothing strange about his bet.

@HarrisonNathan I don’t find it strange, just confident. I have very low confidence in either outcome which is why I created the market; I would like to understand the reasons people are confident in a particular outcome.

@zaperrer The only white men in the running are Marco Rubio and J. D. Vance. Rubio has a history of criticizing Putin, so he's 100% out, and Vance does zilch for the ticket as he only appeals to a narrow demographic that is already enthused about Trump.

@zaperrer The reasoning is mostly that this is not real money. That said, Trump is aware of how big a liability abortion is, and I bet he thinks picking a woman would negate some of that. Also, I think he's easily flattered and will pick someone he wants to grab by the pussy.

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