Resolves when an official statement is made declaring the pick.
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“No buyers”: We’re there any lessons to be learned here?
“Yes buyers”: We’re there any indicators which lead to this result?
Trump’s previous VP was a white male.
Historically, the GOP has elevated white males into positions of power and authority.
The last Republican VP pick who was not a white man was Sarah Palin. She was constantly lampooned by national, left leaning media.
This market moved down to 13-18% shortly after it opened. I felt those odds were quite low at the time.
@HarrisonNathan I don’t find it strange, just confident. I have very low confidence in either outcome which is why I created the market; I would like to understand the reasons people are confident in a particular outcome.
@zaperrer The only white men in the running are Marco Rubio and J. D. Vance. Rubio has a history of criticizing Putin, so he's 100% out, and Vance does zilch for the ticket as he only appeals to a narrow demographic that is already enthused about Trump.
@zaperrer The reasoning is mostly that this is not real money. That said, Trump is aware of how big a liability abortion is, and I bet he thinks picking a woman would negate some of that. Also, I think he's easily flattered and will pick someone he wants to grab by the pussy.