Will spot gold close above \$3000 on any day in 2023?
Mini
12
6.5k
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if the linked article turns out to be basically correct – ie. gold prices soar above \$3000 in 2023 [on one of the major markets], perhaps in some relation to inflation scares.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Context: Saxo Bank released a list of “outrageous predictions” for 2023, and it includes “Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate.”

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predicted NO

resolves no

predicted NO

To evaluate the likelihood of gold reaching such a value, I took monthly price data from Aug-2019 (YCharts, 2023).

Looking at the dataset, we observe that no significant change happened in the span of a single month during the period. Computing the monthly difference, we observe that the highest change was a 7% increase, and the highest price at a month's end was 2000\$. Without any calculation, it is possible to assume that a 64% price increase is unlikely in only three months. A linear forecast predicts Dec-20 price of \$1,961.49, further confirming the hypothesis (LINK).

predicted NO

To evaluate the likelihood of gold reaching such a value, I took monthly price data from Aug-2019 (YCharts, 2023).

Looking at the dataset, we observe that no significant change happened in the span of a single month during the period. Computing the monthly difference, we observe that the highest change was a 7% increase, and the highest price at a month's end was 2000\$. Without any calculation, it is possible to assume that a 64% price increase is unlikely in only three months. A linear forecast predicts Dec-20 price of \$1,961.49, further confirming the hypothesis (LINK).

To evaluate the likelihood of gold reaching such a value, I took monthly price data from Aug-2019 (YCharts, 2023).

Looking at the dataset, we observe that no significant change happened in the span of a single month during the period. Computing the monthly difference, we observe that the highest change was a 7% increase, and the highest price at a month's end was 2000\$. Without any calculation, it is possible to assume that a 64% price increase is unlikely in only three months. A linear forecast predicts Dec-20 price of \$1,961.49, further confirming the hypothesis (LINK).

Meanwhile, actual market in gld etf options are pricing possibility of gold closing above 3000 to around 0-0,5% on each month, and its only the theta left until december what is keeping delta not zero for strikes at that level.