Will spot gold close above $3000 on any day in 2023?

8

closes Dec 31

17%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Amount

Ṁ0

Ṁ50

Ṁ100

Payout if YES

Ṁ52 +422.1%

New probability

21% +4%

Resolves YES if the linked article turns out to be basically correct – ie. gold prices soar above $3000 in 2023 [on one of the major markets], perhaps in some relation to inflation scares.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Context: Saxo Bank released a list of “outrageous predictions” for 2023, and it includes “Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate.”

Get Ṁ500 play money

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Arbbought Ṁ25 of NO

Meanwhile, actual market in gld etf options are pricing possibility of gold closing above 3000 to around 0-0,5% on each month, and its only the theta left until december what is keeping delta not zero for strikes at that level.

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