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Will Amritpal Singh surrender to police by end of April?
6
Ṁ130Ṁ263
resolved May 17
Resolved as
50%

"Khalistani separatist Amritpal Singh, who managed to evade arrest for over 10 days, has returned to Punjab and has plans to surrender at the Golden Temple, sources told India Today. He has been on the run since March 18." - India Today

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/amritpal-singh-likely-in-punjab-hoshiarpur-police-launch-search-operations-khalistan-waris-punjab-de-2352714-2023-03-28

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amritpal_Singh?wprov=sfti1

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predictedNO

As the police tell it, it was an intrepid capture. Tipped off that Amritpal Singh, a radical Sikh preacher and separatist whom they had been pursuing for weeks, was hiding in a village in the north Indian state of Punjab, they sealed it off and, early on April 23rd, arrested the fugitive. The version Mr Singh’s supporters tell is less dramatic: the charismatic Sikh called the cops on himself and addressed a final gathering in the village gurdwara before surrendering.

https://www.economist.com/asia/2023/04/27/amritpal-singh-self-declared-leader-of-sikh-separatism-is-arrested-in-india

predictedYES

@NoaNabeshima Yeah, there seems to be two different stories. Here from an Indian source: https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/cornered-amritpal-surrenders-arrested-500271

I don't see a reason to believe the government's story more than Singh's, especially since I can't find much corroborating evidence. I'm leaning towards resolving it to 50% probability, but I'll give a few hours for anyone to object.

How does this resolve if he is arrested instead of him voluntarily surrendering to the police?

@xyz Could you please answer this.

@NamesAreHard If he is arrested but resisting then it resolves NO. Otherwise it resolves YES.

@xyz Well, he has already been arrested (since last week) but I still have no idea how to bet here...

Amritpal Singh has shared another video address, adding further context to yesterday's video. He confirmed the video was not made in police custody, he’s speaking freely. He also affirmed that he’s made no demands to the police. Reassured that he wouldn’t flee out of fear but will die fighting for the nation. Also, re-enforced his message of the need of Sikhs to unite against state oppression," a Twitter page named Khalsa captioned the post while sharing the video.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/amritpal-singh-releases-new-video-says-won-t-surrender-will-soon-appear-before-world/amp-11680194913448.html