A log of my runs (along with distance in kilometres, and pace in minutes per km) is available here.
This market resolves YES if, between 1 January 2023 and 1 January 2024, I log a run that's further than 30km (regardless of pace).
I'm hoping to use the market price as a realistic estimate of my progress. I will not trade on this market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ284 | |
| 2 | Ṁ140 | |
| 3 | Ṁ87 | |
| 4 | Ṁ54 | |
| 5 | Ṁ44 |
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@galen No. These markets aren't easy to find, especially if you don't have followers. (IIRC I clicked on you because Katja Grace bet in your PhD thesis market.)
If you have a group of IRL friends who you can persuade to join and bet in each others' personal goals markets that will help. If you're anonymous like me... the sad truth is most people aren't going to put much effort into following some random stranger's workouts.
@TylerColeman arb = arbitrage
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage
Galen had a "will I run further than 20km" market and a "will I run further than 30km" market. Obviously the probability of > 20km should be higher than the probability of > 30km. But the actual market probabilities shown were the wrong way around: it showed 57% for >30km but something like 49% for >20km. This is nonsense.
When you see this sort of nonsense, you can make guaranteed Ṁ money! You just bet YES on the >20km market to push its probability up, and NO on the >30km market to push its probability down. Regardless of the outcome, you're guaranteed to make money off it. (Unless >20km resolves to NO and >30km resolves to YES -- but this would be an incorrect resolution.)