xenochain's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.09
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when xenochain bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?NOṀ500
- Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?NOṀ400
- Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be TIME's Person of The Year for 2023?NOṀ100
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%