MANIFOLD
When will the AWS UAE outage be recovered?
2
Ṁ1kṀ330
May 1
March 7, 2026
25%
Before Mar 8, 2026
45%
Before Mar 12, 2026
52%
Before Mar 17, 2026
61%
Before Mar 24, 2026
69%
Before Apr 1, 2026

The AWS UAE data center was damaged by drone strikes, and service in the region has been effectively down since Monday.

This market resolves to the date (in UTC), when the AWS UAE data center (me-central-1) is fully healthy. I will use my best judgement for this, and will consider multiple sources:

  • updates to the AWS status page about the health of the data center, such as whether most AWS services are marked as degraded or disrupted

  • post-mortems published by AWS (example)

  • whether it seems like AWS is working

If one AZ remains out of service, but AWS services are reported as operational by AWS in other AZs and they seem to work, I will consider the outage recovered.

If there are permanent effects (eg, if AWS loses customer data), I will bias towards resolving this when AWS declares they are stopping remediation work. If there is no recovery before April 1, this will resolve to April 1.

"Before <date>" means before midnight UTC at the start of that day.

I won't trade in this market.

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