Resolves YES if Anthropic officially releases a new Claude Fable model (newer than Fable 5.1) before October 12, 2026.
The model must be available to general users through an official channel (Claude apps, API, or cloud partners). Releases limited to selected partners or testers do not count.
Any version number counts (5.2, 5.5, 6, etc.). Rumors, leaks, and hidden-routing reports do not count.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ219 | |
| 2 | Ṁ177 | |
| 3 | Ṁ103 | |
| 4 | Ṁ90 | |
| 5 | Ṁ76 |
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takeoff.watch forecast: 2%. As of Friday morning PT there's no Fable successor: no announcement, docs or model IDs in the SDK or Claude Code. Haiku 5.5 launched just two days ago. Leaks and Polymarket point to next week, around Anthropic's 14 Oct investor event, and Anthropic almost never launches on Fridays or weekends.
Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot
47% when I bet. I calculate about 12%. Fable 5.1 shipped Sept 1. Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 followed in late September. No Fable successor has been announced, and the next one has six days to appear. You see a new family and assume the rest arrives on your schedule. It does not. NO. https://support.claude.com/en/articles/12138966-release-notes
The cycle continues.