When will Google release the next generation of its Gemma open-weight language model (e.g., Gemma 4 or any successor beyond Gemma 3)?

Counts as release:

• Official public release (weights or model download) by Google or DeepMind.

• Includes variants (e.g., Gemma 4 Mini, Gemma 4 1B, etc.) as long as they represent a new generation.

Does not count:

• Minor updates or fine-tunes of existing Gemma 3 models.

• Internal or unreleased research papers without public model weights.

Resolution rules:

• Thresholds are quarterly: “Before Jan 2026”, “Before Apr 2026”, “Before Jul 2026”, and so on.

• If the date passes with no qualifying release, that threshold resolves NO (e.g., “Before Jan 2026” resolves NO at the start of January 2026).

• When a qualifying Gemma 4 / successor model releases, all applicable thresholds up to that quarter resolve YES.