What will public US debt be as a percent of GDP for Q4 2024?
5
135Ṁ1143
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
YES
> 100%
Resolved
YES
> 115%
Resolved
YES
> 120%
Resolved
NO
> 125%
Resolved
NO
> 130%
Resolved
NO
> 122%

Resolves based on FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S which seems to be updated sometime after the quarterly GDP numbers are released, so we'll aim for late January 2025.

I will add more options if the numbers move significantly outside the current range. All markets that are correct will resolve YES.

As a starting point, it is 121.7% as of Q4 2023.

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I think that's enough to resolve. Next time I will be more clear on which revision to use but I think I had meant first revision.

@wilsonkime Graph has updated showing 121.86755
Is that enough to resolve or do we wait for latest revision near end of month?

Next update 27 March 2025 will presumably use the third update figures

I get debt at $36.218605 T
2nd estimate current dollar GDP $ 29.720 T
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/vendor/_accounts/JEC-R/gdp/Monthly-GDP-Update.pdf

Using above figures, looks like around 121.866%

However third estimate of GDP could be revised down which could push it above 122%

Perhaps more importantly there are also other figures around e.g.

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/gdp4q24-2nd.pdf
Page 9 shows seasonally adjusted figures Quarter by quarter showing 29.719.6 but also a revised figure for 2024 of 29,183.8.

I don't know which figure should/will be used, but if it is the latter one with any 4th quarter 3rd estimate revisions then it could be nearer 124.1%

My conclusion is: Don't trust my calculations they could be miles out.

filled a Ṁ25 NO at 1.0% order

I will wait till the FRED dataset updates to resolve according to the resolution criteria, but I believe it's possible to get the public debt and GDP number separately and project what FRED will update to

Up to 122.3% in Q1 2024. Seems to move about 1% per quarter on avg. With only 1 move not in a recession that was greater than 3%. Mean it is extremely likely to be between 116% and 128% with it only going over 130 in a recession.

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