Will something distinct to LK-99 achieve greater virality on Manifolds Markets before 2025?
Dec 31

As the saga of LK-99 recedes into the scientific sunset, I ask you to use your crystal balls as to whether there will be something else big.

I am up for suggestions on resolution criteria but I think the simplest measurable thing is if a question receives more unique traders than LK-99 it will resolve YES.

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A unique aspect ok LK99 was not just the large number of traders, but the large number of new traders. If Manifold has slow organic growth to the point where all top markets have 5000+ traders, you could have a bigger market without it being viral. Perhaps this should take into account size of the market relative to the current number of engaged users?

predicts NO

@JimHays I suspect that LK-99 got a lot of people who signed up to place a bet and otherwise just didn't bother sticking around. In other words, I think normalising by engaged users would not capture virality much better than what I've proposed. What this question implicitly is doing is asking if Manifolds will either have sustained growth in its core engaged base, such that a particular prediction market will naturally just grow bigger than LK-99, or that there will be some future craze that people pour into?

@wilkess I came to this site because of LK-99. Then I got tired of all the "manifoldussy" (or whatever that word was) posts and mostly stopped coming here.

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